国际货币基金组织对于几内亚经济形势表示乐观

国际货币基金组织对于几内亚经济形势表示乐观

国际货币基金组织（IMF）第8次审议工作组8月24日至9月7日访问几内亚，对几内亚宏观经济运行情况进行了全面评估。9月7日，审议组对媒体发表了声明，对几内亚的经济形势表示乐观。IMF将2016年几内亚的经济增长率由原来的3.8%调高到5.2%，通胀率8.4%。

IMF认为，矿业、农业和能源是拉动经济增长的主要动力。

IMF认为，2017年几内亚的经济将继续保持稳健的增长，经济平稳发展、货币政策稳健、外汇储备增加、通胀率降低至8%。

驻几内亚使馆经商处

2016年9月13日

IMF Staff Completes Review Mission to Guinea

September 7, 2016

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Guinean authorities and IMF staff reached preliminary understandings on policies for final review of the ECF; subject to Executive Board approval

Economic activity is recovering, driven by positive supply shocks in the mining, agriculture, and energy sectors

Macroeconomic policies for 2017 will continue to target improvement of the population’s living conditions

An IMF mission led by Abdoul Aziz Wane visited Conakry during August 24 to September 7, 2016, to conduct discussions on the eighth and final review of the authorities’ program supported by an arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

At the conclusion of the mission Mr. Wane issued the following statement:

“The Guinean authorities and IMF staff have reached preliminary understandings on a set of policies that, subject to approval by IMF management and the Executive Board, could be supported by the eighth and final disbursement under the ECF arrangement. Subject to measures to be adopted in the coming weeks, the Executive Board meeting is expected in late October 2016.

“Available data suggest economic activity is recovering, albeit at an uneven pace. The recovery is driven by positive supply shocks in the mining, agriculture, and energy sectors, which were less affected by the Ebola epidemic. Activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, prone to generating good jobs, is recovering at a much slower pace. In this context, the 2016 growth forecast has been revised upward to 5.2 percent from 3.8 percent previously. Reflecting higher prices for imported goods, inflation has increased somewhat to 8.4 percent at end-July 2016.

“Program performance has improved significantly. All end-June performance criteria were met, as well as all indicative targets for end-March and end-June, at the exception of the indicative target on priority spending. A key element of this performance has been prudent execution of the budget. The authorities delivered a basic fiscal balance surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP compared to deficit target of 1.2 percent of GDP. The authorities have met the structural benchmark on the adoption of the civil service reform plan and amended the central bank (BCRG) law to forbid BCRG’s guarantees. Work is also underway on the other structural reforms of the ECF program

.

“Macroeconomic policies for 2017 will continue to be geared toward improving the population’s living conditions, while maintaining economic stability. Monetary policy will continue to be guided by the primary objectives to reduce inflation to 8 percent and rebuild international reserves of the central bank to anchor confidence in the Guinean franc. The mission welcomed the authorities’ plan to align the 2017 with available financing. Fiscal space for priority sectors should be created by implementing bold and sustainable revenue measures, including measures to broaden the tax base, and most importantly, by improving the quality of spending.

“The mission encourages the authorities to step up efforts to finalize the ECF program’s structural reforms, in particular in the electricity sector, and enforce strictly the procurement code. The mission took note of the conclusions of the audit report on public procurement contracts signed in 2014-15 and encouraged the authorities to publish the report in line with their transparency policy.

“The IMF team thanks the authorities for their hospitality and for the constructive discussions.”

The mission was received by His Excellency President Alpha Condé. The mission met with President of the National Assembly Honorable Claude Kory Kondiano and the economic and finance commissions of the National Assembly. The mission also met with Minister of Economy and Finance Malado Kaba, central bank governor Lounceny Nabé, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, Kanny Diallo, Minister of Budget Mohamed Doumbouya, and other senior government officials, the banking association, international partners, as well as private sector and civil society organizations.

[1] The ECF is the IMF’s main tool for medium-term financial support to low-income countries. Financing under the ECF currently carries a zero percent interest rate, with a grace period of 5½ years, and a maturity of 10 years.

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